The Average Absolute Deviation And Anticipated Demand Assignment

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**Answer 1):**

Forecast using exponential smoothing =*(actual from past year)+(1-)* (last year forecast)

Without evidence, we presume that the projection for 2015 will match the level of demand for 2015.

MAD is the average absolute deviation between actual and anticipated demand.

- Explanation for step 1

Forecast for 2022 smoothed exponentially =84.28

MAD =7.14

Step 2/2

**Time series regression:**

The trend line’s equation will be provided by:

y =a+bx

intercept a = y

b = trend line’s slope

dxdy/dx2 =152/28 =5.43

a =Y̅-b*X̅ =72.43-5.43*2018 =-10885.3

Equation:

y =-10885.3+5.43x

Forecast for 2022 equals (10885.3 + 5.43 * 2022) = 94.16

**Predictions from 2015 through 2021 and the MAD calculation:**

- Explanation for step 2

MAD = 3.19

Time series regression approach is better.

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The Average Absolute Deviation And Anticipated Demand Assignment